Professor Guy Baele is an associate professor in statistical and computational phylogenetics at the REGA Institute at KU Leuven University. His research focuses on both pathogen phylodynamics and public health threats and pandemic preparedness.
To identify the causal mechanisms leading to disease emergence, endemic maintenance, and epidemic expansion, epidemiologists would benefit tremendously from a full characterization of pathogen spread in space and time. The extensive sequencing efforts for re-emering epidemics, such as for Ebola virus in Central Africa, and the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, testify that analyses of pathogen genetic data are becoming increasingly important sources of information in epidemiology. The new era of metagenomics promises to harvest such data in unprecedented quantities with remarkable rapidity. With the objective to assist in designing effective intervention and prevention strategies, we are continuing the development of a comprehensive statistical framework for uncovering the spatial and temporal dynamics of pathogen genomes. To this aim, we will design and extend a series of computationally tractable models that use the rapidly proliferating viral genome data to their full potential, connect molecular evolution to underlying spatial processes, and pave the path to rigorous and powerful phylogeographic hypothesis testing. Our efforts do not stop there however, as we have been taking an in-depth look into the fundamentals of phylogenetic inference, and how well phylogenetic methods perform when it comes to navigating the vastness of tree space.
Outbreaks of infectious diseases are increasing due to multiple local and global interaction changes disrupting the fragile balance of the complex human-animal-environment ecosystem. Scientists around the world aim to provide high-quality scientific information in record time to support global and local decision-making in preparing for and responding to (cross-border) health threats and assessing the impact of countermeasures. Our aim is to contribute to these efforts by leading the development of novel statistical models and computational techniques to enable generating actionable information in near real-time. We are committed to aid in tracking the evolution and dispersal of (re-)emerging pathogens and communicating our findings to the Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA), as one of the new European instruments in Health Emergency Response. To this end, we are currently focusing on the ongoing outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus clade 2.3.4.4b, which has turned into the largest documented panzootic to date, causing unprecedented and alarming mortalities in wildlife populations. In collaboration with an international team of researchers, we are investigating the evolution and geographic dispersal of this clade off the coast of South America and around Antarctica.
